COMMENTS

This book is one of the most important management books written in decades and has significantly changed the thinking and actions of many chief executives.  It is also available in an excellent audio tape version.

MOST IMPORTANT IDEAS

4 The one fundamental factor that drives the boom-and-bust cycles of our economy over time in a predictable manner isn’t a matter of politics, interest rates, trade deficits or the strength of the dollar.  Its consumption: how the average family spends money in predictable patterns over time.

4 The best leading indicator of the economy is birth rates.  The birth rate of baby boomers reached its peak in 1961 and bottomed out in the mid 1970’s.

4 The average person reaches his or her peak spending years at age 46.5.  By adding 46.5 years to annual birth rates (creating a spending wave), it is possible to predict the condition of the economy.

4 According to the author, the American economy will experience steady growth until 2002, at which time it will see a great boom until 2010.  At 2010, the spending wave created by the baby boomers will start to diminish and the American economy will enter a major recessionary period.  The author also predicts low inflation until 2010.

4 The author sees eight critical technology trends.  They are:

1. Vastly expanded computer power.  Computer power is doubling every 18 months.  Some of the major advances will be in voice activation and teleconferencing.

2. Mass consumption of portable and home computers.

3. Computers evolve into simple, inexpensive appliances.  An information appliance is a device that is simple to operate, inexpensive and dedicated to a specific function.  An E-mail appliance would be a good example.

4. Microprocessor-embedded home appliances linked through the Internet.

5. Consumers rapidly moving online.  Society will go from mail order to e-mail order.

6. Expansion of communication bandwidth.  This will greatly facilitate the communications revolution.

7. Object-oriented programming for customized software.  This will greatly increase the speed with which software is developed.

8. Increased computer literacy due to an aging population.  More and more people will have grown up with computers.

"I have been a member of Chief Executive Boards for over twelve years. At every board meeting I have come away with useful ideas. Also extremely helpful to me is learning what current and best business practices are being employed by CEBI members" Howie Smith President/CEO Wilson Bohannan Co.